Tuesday, January 20, 2026

EaseMyTrip Crashes to 52-Week Low at ₹6.6: Buy Signal or Total Trap?

EaseMyTrip's plunge to around ₹6.88 – super close to that ₹6.6 mark – has everyone scratching their heads. Is this a steal for beginners dipping into retail investing, or just a trap waiting to snap?

Why the Big Drop?

Promoters dumping stakes spooked the market big time. Back in 2024-25, they sold off chunks, sending shares tumbling 19% in one go, hitting 52-week lows repeatedly. Add tough competition from MakeMyTrip, rising costs eating profits, and a revenue dip of 16-18% YoY – yeah, Q2 FY26 showed losses widening to ₹45 crore. Travel sector's volatile too, with economic bumps hitting bookings. Feels like bad luck piled on, but is it fixable?

Market cap's shrunk to about ₹2,383-2,550 crore – tiny for a travel player. P/E ratio? Sky-high at 4553 or even 186 in spots, way above industry average of 46-78 for online travel peers like Yatra. Cash flow's positive at ₹101 crore net, no debt at all (debt-to-equity 0), ROE at 14.7%, ROCE 20%. Dividend yield? Zero, sadly. Profit growth YoY? Down 16-23%, sales too. Solid balance sheet, but earnings hurt. Like a debt-free guy with a leaky wallet.

Three brothers – Nishant, Rikant, and Prashant Pitti – kicked it off in 2008 from a Delhi garage. Started buying cheap tickets for dad's trips, turned it B2B for agents, then direct online bookings. Bootstrapped, no big loans. Listed in 2021, peaked at ₹37, now... ouch. Real hustlers, but family sales lately raised eyebrows.

How They Make Money?

Zero-commission model – that's their hook. Book flights, hotels, buses, trains, holidays via app or site, no cut from suppliers. Earn from ads, hotels, packages, insurance upsells. Hotel segment booms, air tickets steady. Simple: volume over margins, tech keeps costs low. But rivals undercut, costs creep up. Think Amazon of travel, minus the fees – smart, if it scales.

My predictions vary, but analysts see bounce if travel rebounds. 2026: ₹24. 2030: ₹49. 2035: ₹123. 2040: ₹306. From ₹7 now, that's huge upside – like buying a beaten scooter that turns into a bike. But doubts linger: competition fierce, profits shaky.

These are my wildest guesses and do not trust these numbers blindly.

Monday, January 19, 2026

Bharat Coking Coal IPO Debuts with 96% Premium at ₹45 – Massive Listing Gain from ₹23!

Bharat Coking Coal! Shares hit ₹45 on debut, nearly doubling the ₹23 IPO price – that's a whopping 96% gain right out the gate. But hey, today it's chilling around ₹40-41 after some profit-taking, still up huge.

Why the Price Pop?

Investors went nuts – the IPO got subscribed 147 times! Coking coal demand from steel mills is booming, and BCCL pumps out over half of India's supply. Steel's everywhere – cars, buildings, bridges. Plus, massive reserves mean steady future flow. Doubt it'll hold forever? Markets love a story like this, but watch coal prices dip on global slowdowns.

Key Numbers at a Glance:

Market cap sits pretty at about ₹19,000 crore post-listing. P/E ratio? Around 15-16x, way cheaper than industry peers at 34x median – screams value buy. ROE strong at 21%, ROCE 29% – company turns cash like a pro. Almost debt-free too, debt-to-equity near zero, smart move in volatile coal biz.

Cash flow? Operating positive at ₹796 Cr last year, funding mine expansions without loans. Dividend yield? Zilch for now at 0%, but they just paid first-ever ₹44 Cr payout – hint of good times ahead. Profit grew big YoY, from losses to ₹1,240 Cr PAT, though TTM dipped 20% on seasonal hiccups.

Born 1972 after nationalization acts in '71-'73, when India grabbed private coal mines for energy security. Subsidiary of Coal India, handles Jharia and Raniganj fields – fire-prone but goldmines for coking coal. Turned profitable recently, wiped old losses. Like that old family shop finally modernizing.

What They Do?

Simple: Dig coal, wash it, sell to steel and power plants. Main star? Coking coal for steel blast furnaces – turns to coke when heated, no oxygen needed. Also non-coking for power, washed versions low-ash for premium buyers. 41 Mn tonnes produced FY24, washeries clean it up. Business model? Govt-backed mining ops, some MDO partners for big digs, now eyeing solar on reclaimed land – smart green twist.

Short-term hype might cool, but long game looks tasty. 2026? Could hit ₹55-70 if steel roars and fires tamed. By 2030, ₹150-210 on demand surge to 104 Mn tonnes. 2035? Push ₹300+ with expansions. 2040? Wild guess ₹400-500, assuming green coal tech and India steel boom – but global shift to electric arc furnaces? Risky bet.

These numbers are my wildest guesses. Kindly do not trust these numbers blindly.

Sunday, January 18, 2026

Emcure Pharma Explosive 52-Week Breakout at ₹1575: Buy Signal or Trap?

Emcure Pharma's stock? It just smashed its 52-week high at ₹1575. That's a big jump, right? But is this a real buy signal, or could it trap you like those fake rallies that fizzle out? 

The Breakout Buzz:
Stock hit ₹1575 after breaking past ₹1500 resistance. Volumes spiked hard, showing buyers piling in. Analysts say buy dips near ₹1480-1500, eyeing ₹1580-1620 soon. Weight-loss injection launch helped push it up. Reminds me of that PSU stock last year—broke out, then pulled back 10%. Scary, huh? 

Key Numbers at a Glance:
Market cap sits at ₹26,452 crore. P/E ratio is 32.28, close to industry average of 33.43—not crazy expensive. ROE looks solid at 16.72%, debt to equity low at 0.35 (or 0.22 some reports). Dividend yield? Just 0.21%, so not for income hunters. Profit jumped 24.7% YoY to ₹251 crore last quarter, revenue up 13.4%. Cash flow from ops was strong historically, like ₹10,972 crore in FY24. Debt totals ₹655 crore, manageable. But cash flow details fuzzy lately—need to watch Q3. 

Satish Mehta founded Emcure in 1981 with a tiny ₹3 lakh bank loan after IIM-A. Started as contract maker for big foreign pharma. Now, it's a global generics giant in 70+ countries. Family-run vibe, second-gen entrepreneur story. Solid roots, no flashy drama. 

What They Sell?
They make affordable drugs—generics, injectables, biotherapeutics. Big in gynecology (women's health), heart meds, oncology, painkillers, HIV, diabetes. Vertically integrated: own APIs to finished pills. Exports to Europe, Canada too. First-to-market stuff like iron formulas keeps them ahead. Like your reliable neighborhood chemist, but worldwide.

Buy or Trap?
Fundamentals okay—growing profits, low debt. Breakout looks real with volume. But P/E near peers, low dividend. Pharma sector volatile with US FDA hiccups. If earnings keep rising 15-20%, could ride higher. Me? I'd buy small on dip, not chase ₹1575 blind. Trap if volumes dry up. 

Short-term bullish. 2026: ₹1180-1320, maybe higher if exports boom. 2030: ₹1800-2137, riding complex generics wave. 2035? Stretch to ₹3000+ if biosimilars hit big—pure guess on 15% CAGR. 2040: ₹5000? Dreamy, if they crack AI drugs or vaccines. Who knows, markets flip fast. Past charts say hold winners long. 



Saturday, January 17, 2026

She Chased Telegram Trading Tips and Lost It All—Here's Why You Shouldn't!

Meet Priya Sharma, 34, HR exec by day. Back in COVID lockdown, she dipped her toes into stock trading with just ₹50,000. Sound familiar? That small account thrill, the late-night charts. Priya's story could be yours. Or mine, almost.

She started slow. First six months? Rocky but okay. Up ₹8,000 one month. Down ₹5,000 the next. Up ₹7,000 after that. She was learning. Paper trading at first, then real money. Mistakes taught her: don't chase rallies blind. Check volume. Wait for confirmation.

Then March 2023 hit. Doomscrolling Telegram, she stumbles on "Super Traders India." Banner screams: "90% accuracy calls. Free first month!" Who wouldn't peek? Priya did. First call drops: "Buy XYZ at 380. Target 420."

Heart pounding, she buys. Stock rockets to 412. Bam—₹2,800 profit. Quick math: her tiny position turned hero. She texts a friend: "This is it! Real money magic."

Second call: "ABC at 225. Target 260." Sells at 248. ₹3,100 in the bag. Grinning ear to ear. "These guys are gods," she thinks. Dumps her own research. For two months, it's Telegram or bust. Total haul: ₹23,000. Her account balloons to ₹73,000. Lunch with colleagues? She brags. "I'm quitting HR soon."

But here's the hook that sinks most. Luck runs dry. Calls flop. One week, ₹4,000 gone. "Bad market," she tells herself. Next week, ₹6,000 vaporized. Still follows. Why? "They nailed it before. Streak's coming back."

By June, peak erased. Down ₹19,000 net. Account at ₹54,000. Panic sets in. Why'd it fail? No clue. Wasn't her analysis. Just "buy" from a stranger. When her solo trades bombed, she'd spot it: weak candle, no volume spike. Lesson learned. Telegram? Zero insight. Just blind faith.

July. She ghosts the group. Back to basics. Her win rate? Crashes from 68% (tips era) to 49%. Ouch. Four months grinding to breakeven. Now? ₹71,000. Slower gains. But she sleeps like a baby.

Priya's words: "Quick bucks felt great. But knowing why my money moves? Priceless."

The Telegram Trap: Why Free Tips Feel Like Gold But Burn You

India's retail trading boom. NSE active investors hit 10 crore last year. Many from small towns, tiny accounts like Priya's. Enter Telegram. 800 million users in India. Channels promise moonshots: "90% accuracy," "insider calls," "F&O lambi."

Sounds dreamy. But peel it back. Most are pump-and-dump scams. SEBI warns yearly: 90% retail traders lose money. Telegram tips? Fuel for that stat.

Priya's not alone. Take Raj from Delhi. Joined "Stock Rocket" last Diwali. Turned ₹1 lakh to ₹1.5 lakh in weeks. Then wiped to ₹40,000. "They vanished when losses piled," he says. Or Neha, Mumbai student. Borrowed from dad for "sure-shot IPO calls." Lost half. Cried for days.

Why do we fall? Psychology. Dopamine hit from wins. Sunk cost fallacy: "Already lost some, can't quit now." FOMO. Herding. Telegram's anonymous. No face, no accountability.

Real talk: Pro traders don't share free gold. They charge lakhs for mentorship. Free groups? Often operators front-run. They buy low, spam "buy," dump on you at top.

Red Flags You Can't Ignore in Trading Tip Channels

Spotted one? Pause. Check these:

Absurd accuracy claims. 90%? Markets are random 50/50 at best.

Even stars like Rakesh Jhunjhunwala had 40-50% wins.No risk talk.

Real advice says "stop loss at X." Tips? Just "buy target Y."

Blind.Free forever? Lures you in, then paid VIP. Classic bait.Emotional hype. Emojis everywhere.

"Last call made crores!" Proof? Zero.No track record. Backtest their calls? Use Streak or TradingView. Most flop.

Priya wishes she knew. "I saw 90% and brain shut off.

"Priya's Grind Back:

What Solo Trading Taught HerLeft Telegram, she rebuilt. Started with Nifty options. Paper traded 100 setups. Journal every trade: why enter, why exit, what broke.Win rate dipped. Normal. But edges sharpened.

Now spots:

Breakouts with volume >1.5x average.

RSI divergences.

Support flips.

Her account? Steady 1-2% monthly. No home runs. "Better than wipeouts.

"Analogy time: Tips are like lottery wins. Thrilling, forgettable. Skill? Like gym. Hurts first, builds forever.Stats Don't Lie: India's Telegram Trading Nightmare. SEBI data: 89% F&O traders lose over 1 year. Small accounts hit hardest—under ₹1 lakh bleed fastest. Telegram raids? Delhi Police busted 10 gangs last year. ₹500 crore scam. Channels like "Big Bull Calls" pumped penny stocks, operators cashed out. Even legit ones? Survivorship bias. You see winners posted. Losers? Deleted. For beginners: 95% quit in 2 years. Why? No edge. Tips kill learning.Build Your Edge: Priya's 7 Steps for Small Account Survival. Don't chase tips. Start here. Priya swears by it. Paper trade 3 months. Real money later. Apps: Sensibull, Zerodha Streak. One setup only. Master candlestick breakouts. Ignore rest. Risk 1% per trade. ₹50k account? Max ₹500 risk. Sleep easy. Journal ruthlessly. Screenshot charts. Note emotions. "FOMO entry? Dumb." Weekly review. Wins? Luck or skill? Losses? Fixable? Free resources rock. Zerodha Varsity (free modules). Power of Stocks YouTube. No Telegram needed. Community? Offline first. Local investor meets. Ask questions face-to-face. Priya added: "Doubts okay. I mess up weekly. But now I fix it myself."The Emotional Side: When Trading Hits Your Soul. Money's one thing. Confidence? Shattered. Priya post-tips: "Felt stupid. Questioned everything." HR job stress piled on. Sleepless nights checking charts. Turned it around with walks. Meditation apps. Talked to hubby: "No more gambles." Trading's mental game. Tips rob control. Your analysis? Empowers. Side note: Women traders rising. 25% of Demat accounts now female. Priya's proud. "We're cautious. That's our edge.

"SEBI's Crackdown: Will It Save You? Good news. SEBI's 2025 rules: No unsolicited tips. Fines up to ₹1 crore. Apps must flag risky advice. But Telegram? Global. Hard to police. Your shield? Education. Petition your broker. "Block tip channels?" Some do.Priya Today: HR Pro, Trader on Her Terms. ₹71k now. Goals: ₹2 lakh by Diwali. Not quitting job. Side hustle. Advice to you: "Trade to learn. Not get rich quick. Telegram tempted me. But my brain's the real alpha now." Her last words: "Losses hurt. But ignorance hurts more.

"Final Nudge: Spot a Tip Trap Today? Scrolling Telegram? Close it. Open TradingView. Draw your lines. Feel the power. Priya did. You can too.Priya Sharma's name changed for privacy. Story based on interviews, January 2026.

Friday, January 16, 2026

Angel One 1-Month Breakout: ₹2750 Surge Signals Bullish Momentum!

Angel One's stock? It just smashed past ₹2750 after a solid one-month breakout. Feels like the bulls are charging in, right?

Why the Big Jump Now?

This isn't random. Over the past month, shares climbed from around ₹2595 to ₹2754, hitting fresh highs. Strong Q3 numbers helped—revenues at ₹13,377 million, profit ₹2,687 million. Client orders up 5%, funding book at record ₹53 billion. Kinda like your favorite chai stall suddenly getting a huge crowd after word spreads. But yeah, SEBI derivative talks spooked it earlier; now momentum's back.

Key Numbers at a Glance:

Angel One's market cap sits at about ₹25,000 crore. P/E ratio? Around 29-32, way below broking peers averaging over 180—looks cheap, no? Dividend yield's a nice 1.7-1.9%, with ₹23 interim payout announced. ROE strong at 27-29%, ROCE 25-26%. Debt to equity? Super low, almost zero debt shown. Profit grew nuts—66% CAGR over 5 years, though TTM dipped a bit. Cash flow? Operating positive historically, but investing outflows lately from growth spends.

Dinesh Thakkar started it all in 1996 as Angel Broking. Dude was a small-time trader who dreamed big—turned it tech-savvy early. Rebranded Angel One in 2021, went public 2020. From offline desks to app downloads in millions. Promoter holding dipped to 28.9% though—makes you wonder if they're cashing out a tad.

How They Make Money?

Discount broking app for stocks, F&O, commodities. Zero delivery brokerage hooked retail folks. Add demat, mutual funds, loans, insurance. Wealth management AUM jumped 21% to ₹61 billion. It's like Uber for trading—easy, cheap, everywhere on your phone. Over 10 million users now. Revenue from brokerage, interest, fees.

Short-term bullish on this breakout. For 2026, could hit ₹3,000-5,600 if markets stay friendly. 2030? Analysts eye ₹4,300-12,000, riding digital boom. By 2035, maybe ₹5,000-6,000; 2040 even ₹8,000-10,000. These are guesses, okay? Depends on regulations, client adds. If retail trading grows like crazy—and it should—₹2750 might look like a steal.

These are my wildest guesses. Do not trust these numbers blindly.

Thursday, January 15, 2026

Story IP Crashes 30% in 24 Hours: Buy the Rumor, Sell the News?

Story Protocol's IP token just tanked over 30% in the last day, dropping to around $2.36. Traders are whispering "buy the rumor, sell the news" after a wild 110% rally fizzled out. Kinda feels like that time you hype up a party, everyone shows, then ghosts right after the cake's cut.

What's Behind the Crash?

Heavy profit-taking hit hard. Folks piled in on hype around IP listings and updates, then dumped to cash gains once reality kicked in. Leverage got flushed too—big volume means forced sells from overextended longs. Oh, and unlock fears? Token vesting events loom, scaring holders into bailing early. Volume's nuts at $333M, but market cap slipped to $821M. Right now, it's hovering near $908M cap with 348M tokens circulating out of 1B total.

Seung Yoon “SY” Lee and Jason Zhao started this in 2024-ish. SY sold his fiction app Radish for $440M, big in Korean entertainment. Jason's ex-DeepMind, Stanford brain. They saw AI remixing content everywhere, built a blockchain fix. Raised $50M+ from a16z, Samsung. Jason stepped back from CEO last year for AI side gigs, maybe spooked some.

How the Business Works?

Story's a Layer 1 blockchain for IP—think registering songs, art, code on-chain. Use $IP token for fees, licensing, staking security. Tools like StoryKit let devs build apps; License Module splits royalties auto. Creators mint "IP Assets," remix with permission, everyone gets a cut. BTS song rights got tokenized—real deal. Monetizes that massive untapped IP world.

Price Guesses Ahead

Short-term? Could bounce from $2 support if bulls defend the trendline. 2026? Neutral forecasts say $3-4, bullish up to $4.90. By 2030, maybe $5.50-$6.50 if adoption hits. 2035? Around $7ish in base cases. Wild card: 2040 could touch $38 average if IP economy booms like they dream. Doubtful? Yeah, crypto's brutal—remember Luna? But Story solves real pain. Watch unlocks and listings.

Wednesday, January 14, 2026

Jupiter Wagons Rockets 12% in a Day: What's Fueling This Explosive Rally?

Whoa, Jupiter Wagons (JWL) just blasted up 12% in one session—traders are buzzing. From around ₹290 to over ₹330, right? If you're eyeing rail stocks like this Kolkata gem, let's break it down simple. No jargon, promise.

The Rally Spark

Promoters converted warrants into shares, pumping in fresh cash at ₹470 a pop. That's huge confidence from insiders. Think of it like your rich uncle buying more family business stock—signals good times ahead. Earlier orders from Indian Railways, like that ₹113 crore one, keep the momentum rolling too. But is this a one-day fireworks or real fire?

Key Numbers at a Glance

Market cap sits pretty at ₹12,500-14,500 crore, solid for a midcap rail player. P/E ratio? Around 45-50, higher than industry average of 33. Means folks pay premium for growth, but watch if earnings catch up.

Debt's low—₹394 crore total, debt-to-equity just 0.15. ROE at 17%, ROCE 21%—company squeezes good profits from money invested. Dividend yield? Meager 0.3-0.44%, not for income hunters. Cash flow strong from ops, profits up but sales growth slowed to 6% lately. YoY profit? Solid historically, though exact recent dip—need quarterly check.

Started in 1979 by Jupiter Group in Kolkata—yeah, your city, right? No single flashy founder named everywhere; it's family-run engineering vibe. Grew from wagons to full rail freight makers. Acquired plants, now listed on NSE/BSE. Steady climber in Nifty Smallcap.

What They Do

Builds railway wagons, coaches, components like crossings. Also truck bodies, defense bits. Main game? Supply Indian Railways—think endless freight cars for coal, goods. Business model: Grab govt tenders, manufacture, deliver. Diversifying to logistics, autos. Rail boom under Modi era fuels orders. Simple: More trains, more wagons needed.

Short term, could test ₹400 if rail orders pile. But volatile—dropped 35% last year from ₹588 high.

By 2026 end? Maybe ₹500-600 if profits double on capex.

2030? Rail infra push might push to ₹1500-2000, assuming 20% CAGR like peers. Doubtful if economy slows.

2035-2040? Wild guess—₹5000+ if India becomes rail superpower. But hey, who knows? These numbers are my wildest guesses. Kindly do not trust them blindly.

Tuesday, January 13, 2026

Intel Corporation (INTC) Explosive 52-Week Breakout: Intel Hits $47 High – Buy Signal or Trap?

Intel's stock just blasted through its 52-week high at $47. Wow. Traders are buzzing – is this the real deal or just another fakeout?

Why the Sudden Surge?

Volume spiked hard last week. Think of it like a dam breaking after months of pressure. CES announcements on new AI chips got everyone excited. Plus, analysts like KeyBanc jumped in with upgrades, calling it overweight at $60 target. But honestly, after years of stumbles, can we trust this? Feels shaky if chip demand cools.

Quick Financial Snapshot:

Market cap sits around $219 billion right now – massive for semis. P/E ratio? About 1,100x forward earnings, way above industry average of 25-30x. Crazy high, screams overvalued unless profits explode. Cash flow from ops improved to $7.7 billion last year, but free cash still lags. Debt's heavy at $49 billion, debt-to-equity near 0.45. Dividend yield? A decent 1.8%, paid quarterly. ROE bounced to 2% from negatives. Profit growth YoY? Up 21% net income, finally green after losses. Not bad, but foundry division bleeds cash. Watch Q4 earnings Jan 22.

Started in 1968 by Gordon Moore and Robert Noyce – brainy guys from Fairchild. Moore's Law? His idea chips double power every two years. Took off with PC boom in 80s. Remember Pentium? Dominated. But smartphones killed their lead. Now pivoting to AI, foundries. Long road, man.

Business Model and Products:

Sells processors, mostly. CPUs for laptops like Core i7, server Xeon chips. Graphics with Arc. Big bet on foundries – making chips for others like TSMC does. Services? Cloud software, AI tools. Revenue mix: 50% client, 30% data center, rest foundry ramping. Tough competition from AMD, Nvidia. Still, AI boom could save 'em. Like betting on a comeback kid.

2026? Could hit $55 if foundry hits 20% margins. Analysts whisper $50-60. By 2030, $80 maybe, if AI eats the world. 2035? $120, assuming Moore's Law holds. 2040? Wild guess $200, but quantum computing might flip everything. These are dreams, though. Trap if recession hits.

Monday, January 12, 2026

IFCI (Industrial Finance Corporation of India) 30-Day Breakout Alert: Explosive Surge Signals Massive Gains Ahead!

IFCI just smashed through its 30-day high around ₹55-60, jumping over 6% in a day to hit ₹56.43. Traders are buzzing—could this be the start of something big for retail folks like us?

What's Behind the Surge?

Simple. Recent quarterly numbers popped: sales up 18% YoY to ₹732 crore, net profit exploding 72% to ₹317 crore. That's no fluke. IFCI cut debt big time, boosting cash flow from negative to positive swings in spots. Still, sales growth lagged over years at -8% CAGR—kinda worrying, right? But profit's roared back 22% CAGR last 5 years.

Market cap sits at ₹15,172 crore, price ₹56-ish.

P/E is high at 36, way above industry median 21. No dividend yield—bummer, zero percent.

Debt slashed, so debt-to-equity improved (exact ratio not fresh, but pros note reduction).

ROE modest 2.6-3.6%, ROCE 8%. Book value ₹33. Like buying a house below market? Maybe.

Born 1948 as Industrial Finance Corporation of India, government-backed to fund factories post-independence. No single founder—statutory body under Finance Ministry. Turned company in '93 for flexibility. Tough patches with NPAs, losses, even privatization push. Now NBFC, listed BSE/NSE. Helped build giants like stock exchanges, airports.

How It Makes Money?

Lends long-term to infra—roads, power, telecom, real estate. Subsidiaries handle ventures, merchant banking, custodians. Think of it as the quiet bank for big projects: Adani ports, GMR airport got IFCI cash. But heads advisory shift by late '24, ditching pure lending?

Analysts eye ₹95-217 by 2026 if momentum holds. 2030? Could double to 100-200+ on infra boom. Longer? 2035 at 300-500, 2040 maybe 600-1000 if profits compound 20%. Pure guesswork, though—like betting on a horse. Past 5-year stock CAGR 38%, but volatile. India infra spend? Trillions ahead. Risky for beginners—don't bet the farm.

Sunday, January 11, 2026

United Breweries (UBL) Hits 52-Week Low at ₹1533: Time to Buy Kingfisher's Dip?

United Breweries (UBL) just hit a 52-week low at ₹1533. Ouch. Kingfisher's parent company is hurting, but is this the dip retail investors like you should buy?

Why the Price Crash?
Bad quarterly numbers kicked it off. Latest Q2 FY26 showed net profit down 65% YoY to ₹46 crore, sales dipped 3%. Blame higher costs, maybe weak demand in some states. Stock's fallen 24% in a year while Nifty FMCG holds up. Kinda reminds me of that time gold dipped hard before bouncing—temporary pain?

Market cap sits around ₹41,000 crore. 
P/E ratio? A steep 108-112 times, way above industry peers at 36-54 for breweries. 
Dividend yield's decent at 0.65%, pays ₹10 last time. 
Debt's low—₹575 crore total, debt-to-equity just 0.13. Solid, no big red flag there. 
ROE around 10-11%, ROCE 14%. Not stellar, but steady. 
Cash flow from ops was ₹235 crore last year, positive after some rough patches. Profit growth? TTM down 20%, 3-year at 8%. 

Started in 1915 by Scotsman Thomas Leishman, merging old breweries like Castle and Nilgiris. Vittal Mallya took over in 1948, built the empire. His son Vijay made Kingfisher iconic—remember those calendar girls? Now Heineken owns 42% stake since 2010s.

UBL brews and sells beer, rules 50%+ of India's premium market. Kingfisher Premium, Ultra, Strong—every pub's got 'em. Heineken, Bulmers too. Non-alco like fizz drinks on side. Business? Manufacture, distribute via states (alcohol rules are messy). Volumes up long-term, but margins squeezed by taxes, raw stuff like barley.

At ₹1533, it's cheap vs ₹2300 peak. Low debt helps weather storms. But high P/E screams caution—overvalued if profits don't grow. Youth loving craft beers could boost, plus new launches like Heineken Silver. Still, regulations bite.Predictions vary. 2026 end: ₹2800-2900 if recovery hits. 
2030: ₹6500, riding premium shift. 
2035? Push to ₹10,000+ if India drinks more fancy stuff. 
2040: Wild guess ₹4500-5000.
These numbers are my wildest guesses. Do not trust them blindly.



Saturday, January 10, 2026

MTAR Tech Share Price All-Time High ₹2,920: What's Next for Defence Multibagger Investors?

Remember when MTAR Tech hit that crazy all-time high of ₹2,920 back in September 2023? Lately, it's buzzing again around ₹2,690, flirting with fresh peaks like ₹2,742. Defence stocks are on fire, thanks to India's big push in self-reliance—think more orders from DRDO and HAL. But as a multibagger investor, you're wondering: hold tight or cash out? Let's break it down simple.

Why the Price Surge Now?

Recent defence deals and India's Atmanirbhar Bharat vibe are fueling it. Q2 FY26 sales dipped to ₹135 crore from ₹156 crore last quarter, profit after tax fell to ₹4 crore. Still, bosses say H2 will double revenue, eyeing 30-35% YoY growth with 21% EBITDA margins. It's volatile, though—profits down lately from ₹56 crore in FY24. Kinda like that friend who promises big but stumbles sometimes.

Key Numbers at a Glance

Market cap sits at ₹8,273 crore.

P/E is sky-high at 178, way above defence peers' median of 60.

ROE? Just 7.5-7.65%, ROCE 10.5-11%. Debt to equity low at 0.24—solid, not drowning in loans.

Cash from ops improved to ₹57 crore in FY24, but TTM profit growth mixed, down 4% over 3 years.

Dividend yield? Zero, bummer for income folks.

Sales grew 16.5% avg last decade.

Started in 1970 by buddies P. Ravindra Reddy, late K. Satyanarayana Reddy, and P. Jayaprakash Reddy in Hyderabad. They kicked off with nuclear coolant channels for Atomic Energy Dept post-embargo. No big loans—just bootstrapped smarts. Evolved into precision engineering champ. Promoter holding now 31%, dipped lately.

What They Actually Do?

MTAR makes high-tech parts for defence, space, nuclear—no room for errors here. Think fuelling machine heads, grid plates for reactors; liquid engines for ISRO rockets; Agni missile shrouds. Also ball screws, bearings for aero. Seven plants near Hyderabad, export focus. Clients: NPCIL, DRDO, even Israel's Elbit. Business model? Custom engineering, machining, testing—one-stop for tough stuff. Defence boom means steady orders, but execution hiccups can bite.

Short-term, 2026 could see ₹2,200-3,500 if orders flow. Analysts peg end-2026 at ₹2,192 bullish case, but outdated—now higher base. By 2030, optimistic calls hit ₹4,500-4,600 with India ramping arms spend. 2035? Wild guess, maybe ₹8,000-10,000 if they grab 10% defence pie—pure extrapolation, defence growing 15% yearly. 2040? ₹15,000+ if space/nuclear explodes, but wars or policy shifts could tank it. Like betting on a rocket: thrilling, but pack a parachute. Promoter dilution and no dividends worry me a bit.

These are the wildest guesses. Do not believe these numbers blindly.

Friday, January 9, 2026

Jio Financial Services Near 3‑Month Low: Golden Buying Opportunity or Value Trap?

Jio Financial Services stock is hovering around ₹287-294, close to its 3-month low after dipping over 6% in recent weeks. Feels like one of those moments where retail investors like us wonder if it's time to buy the dip or run.

Why the Price Drop?
Bears are growling. Multiple EMA crossovers—5-day, 10-day, even 200-day—flashed sell signals on Jan 8. Weak Q3 vibes from last year lingered, with seasonal dividend cuts from Reliance and softer interest income dragging sequential profits down 37%. High valuations spook folks too; stock's lost 18% in three months amid regulatory jitters and competition. Kinda like waiting for rain in a drought—promising clouds, but no downpour yet.

Market cap sits at ₹1.82-1.86 lakh crore. P/E ratio? A whopping 112-116, way above NBFC industry averages around 28-44 median. Dividend yield's tiny, 0.17%. Debt to equity near zero—super clean balance sheet, almost debt-free.[screener] ROE 1.23-1.3%, ROCE 1.2-1.47%—not stellar, but steady. Cash flow from ops negative at -₹10k Cr last year, funding growth.[screener] Profit up 0.5-1% YoY to ₹1,613 Cr FY25, with Q2 FY26 net profit jumping 114% QoQ to ₹695 Cr on better lending.

Born from Reliance Industries demerger in July 2023, listed August that year—Mukesh Ambani's brainchild to shake up finance. Started as Reliance Strategic Investments in 1999, now a holding co for Jio's money plays. Backed by Jio's massive user base, it's like that quiet kid from a rich family suddenly stepping into the spotlight.

Digital finance for everyday folks. Subsidiaries handle lending (personal, durables via MyJio app), insurance broking (ties with 24 firms for life, health, auto), payments bank JV, and more in pipeline. AUM hit ₹14,712 Cr in Q2 FY26, up 12x YoY—fueled by secured loans. Tech-driven, AI-personalized, low-cost model. Think Amazon of loans, but for Indians scraping by.

Golden buy? Clean books, Jio muscle could explode as lending grows 15% CAGR. But sky-high P/E screams value trap if profits stall—like buying a Ferrari that sips profits slowly. Recent Q2 profit surge hints momentum. Price guesses? Wild cards, but analysts eye ₹500 by 2030 on expansion. 2026: ₹400ish if AUM doubles. 2030: ₹889-1000. 2035: ₹2000+. 2040: ₹2100-2150, riding digital boom.

Thursday, January 8, 2026

IRCTC (Indian Railway Catering & Tourism Corporation) Near 52-Week Low: Golden Opportunity Or Value Trap For Long-Term Investors?

IRCTC stock just hit its 52-week low around ₹653-656. Brutal drop from ₹832 high. Wondering if it's a steal for long-term holders or a trap?

Price Drop Reasons-

Recent quarters showed decent sales up 7-8% YoY, but profit growth slowed to about 10%. Investors dumped shares after railway budget gave modest capex hikes—no big Vande Bharat boom yet. Competition from private apps like redBus nibbles at tourism edges too.

Market cap sits at ₹52,500-54,000 Cr. P/E ratio? Around 38-39, slightly below sector's 40-42. Debt to equity is basically zero—super clean balance sheet. ROE shines at 37-38%, ROCE near 49%. Dividend yield 1.2%, steady payout over 46%. Cash flow from ops positive at ₹800+ Cr last year, though investing outflows for expansions. Profit grew 20% CAGR over 5 years, but latest YoY cooler.

Born in 1999 as a PSU under Ministry of Railways to fix messy catering and push tourism. IPO in 2019 made it public, shares rocketed to ₹1200+ then cooled. Mini-Ratna status now. Real story: from manual tickets to app monopoly.

IRCTC runs e-ticketing (80% revenue), that's the cash cow with monopoly on trains. Catering on trains/stations, tourism packages, Rail Neer water, even lounges and iMudra wallet. Diversified to flights/hotels bookings. Like your one-stop railway uncle—tickets, food, trips all in one.

Future Price Predictions-

2026: ₹900-1200, riding rail modernization.

2030: ₹1400-3600 if tourism booms with India's travel surge. Stretch to 2035/2040? No solid calls, but if GDP hits 8%, could double to ₹2500+ by 2035, ₹4000 by 2040—purely my wildest guesses on compounding. Doubtful if monopoly cracks. Don't trust these numbers blindly.

Wednesday, January 7, 2026

BHEL (Bharat Heavy Electricals) Breaks Out to New 52-Week Highs: What’s Fueling the Rally?

BHEL smashing its 52-week high at ₹305.90 just yesterday? Shares jumped from a low of ₹176, that's like a 73% run-up. Retail investors like us are buzzing – but what's really pushing this PSU giant?

Strong Q2 numbers lit the fuse. Profit shot up 253% YoY to ₹375 crore on 14% sales growth to ₹7,512 crore. Order books are fat with power projects, thanks to India's energy push.

Market cap sits around ₹1.05 lakh crore now. P/E is sky-high at 185-190x, way above industry avg of 49-52x. ROE? Just 2.12%, ROCE 4.87% – not stellar. Dividend yield's a measly 0.17%. Debt-to-equity around 0.36-0.45, manageable but watch it. Cash flow flipped positive at ₹2,192 crore last year after losses. Profit growth? TTM 26%, but 5-year sales crawl was 6%. Book value ₹70, trading at 4.3x.

Born 1956 as Heavy Electricals (India) Ltd. Merged into BHEL in 1974, now under Heavy Industries Ministry. Grew from Bhopal plant to power giant by '70s. Owned 63% by govt.

Designs, builds, erects power gear – turbines, boilers, generators for thermal, hydro, nuclear. Dabbles in renewables, transmission, defense like ship parts, even EVs and locos. Full service: from blueprint to fix-up. Analogy? Like the neighborhood mechanic who builds your bike too.

Short-term, 2026 could hit ₹350-400 if orders flow.

By 2030, some say ₹800+ on green energy bets. 2035? Risky, maybe ₹1,200 if ROE climbs.

2040? Wild guess ₹2,000, but execution's key – PSUs can stumble. These are my wildest guesses and do not follow these numbers blindly.

Tuesday, January 6, 2026

Cupid Share Price Skyrockets 580% in 1 Year: Multibagger Rally After Sharp Correction – Buy, Sell or Hold Now?

Cupid share price has gone crazy in the last one year, turning into a proper multibagger after a sharp correction – but at current levels, it is also looking quite expensive, so blindly buying now can be risky for new investors. For existing investors, it looks more like a hold with a strict eye on numbers and news flow, not an ignore-and-forget type stock.

Latest rally and price action:
Cupid shares have jumped over 430–440% in the last 12 months, driven by a huge re-rating and strong optimism around its order book and earnings growth. In early January 2026, the stock bounced sharply after a 30–35% fall in just a couple of days, which shook out weak hands but also attracted fresh buyers at lower levels.

The company boosted sentiment by saying Q3FY26 will be its best-ever quarter and also raised full-year guidance to around ₹335 crore revenue and ₹100 crore profit, much higher than earlier estimates. This kind of bold guidance usually pulls in traders, momentum players and even retail investors who don’t want to “miss the next multibagger”, and that seems to be exactly what happened here.

As of early Jan 2026, Cupid’s market cap is around ₹11,000–11,500 crore, which is quite big for a niche condoms and IVD products maker.
The trailing P/E is very high, in the 180x zone on some portals, compared to an industry P/E of around 55x, so the stock is clearly trading at a premium valuation.
ROE is decent, in the 16–18% range, which shows the company is generating good profit on shareholders’ money.
Debt is very low, with a debt-to-equity ratio of nearly 0.05, basically a near debt-free balance sheet, which is a big plus in any market cycle.
Dividend yield is negligible to zero right now, so this is not a dividend play; it is a growth and sentiment story.
Profit margins and cash flows have improved over the last few years, and FY25 revenue was around ₹180+ crore with healthy net margins above 20%, showing decent financial strength.

Cupid Limited was incorporated in 1993 and got listed on BSE in 1995, and later on NSE in 2016. It started as a small condom manufacturer and gradually became one of the key suppliers to global health agencies, working with governments and organisations focused on sexual health and HIV prevention. The company was founded by Om Garg (widely known as the promoter behind Cupid’s growth), and over the years management has built strong relationships with WHO/UNFPA and other agencies. Cupid became the first company in the world to get WHO/UNFPA pre-qualification for both male and female condoms, which gave it a big edge in winning export orders.

Cupid’s core business is manufacturing male condoms, female condoms, water-based lubricant jelly and in‑vitro diagnostic (IVD) kits like pregnancy tests, HIV, dengue, malaria and Covid test kits. A large part of revenue comes from export tenders and contracts with global agencies and governments, which can be lumpy but high value when they click.

Why the stock turned multibagger?
There are a few simple reasons why Cupid share price skyrocketed:
Strong order book and guidance for record revenue and profit, which changed how the market looks at the company.
Near debt-free status and improving ROE and margins, which made it attractive to long-term investors.
Unique niche in female condoms and WHO/UNFPA pre-qualification, where there are very few serious global competitors.
Retail and trader interest after massive past returns, creating a classic momentum loop – rising price brings more buyers, and more buyers push price even higher.

Price targets for 2026, 2030, 2035, 2040:
Nobody can predict exact levels, and with a high P/E stock like Cupid, small changes in sentiment can swing price wildly. So take these as rough, scenario-based views, not guaranteed targets.
Assuming: Revenue and profit actually move towards guidance in FY26 and then grow 15–18% annually for a few years.
P/E gradually cools down from extreme levels closer to sector averages as the story matures. A very rough, broad range (not advice, just an illustration of possibilities):
2026: If earnings meet guidance and P/E stays rich, price could broadly stay in the current zone with swings, say around ₹350–₹650 range during the year.
2030: With steady growth and a more normal P/E, the stock could be anywhere in a wide zone like ₹900–₹1,800 if things go right, or much lower if growth disappoints.
2035: Over 10 years, a strong compounder might give 3–5x from current levels; that hints at a very rough ₹1,500–₹3,000+ type band, again with big uncertainty.
2040: Fifteen‑year views are almost guesswork; a good outcome might be 4–6x from current price, but a bad cycle, regulation, or tender loss can totally change the story.

Buy, sell or hold now?
New investors: At such a high P/E and after a 400%+ run, fresh buying with big lump sums is risky. If you really like the story, consider staggered entry and be ready for deep corrections.
Existing investors sitting on big profits: Looks like a candidate to hold with a trailing stop-loss or partial profit booking, especially if your allocation has become too large in your portfolio.
Traders: Treat it as a high-beta momentum stock. Good for short-term moves, but strict risk management is a must because swings can be brutal both ways.

Monday, January 5, 2026

IIFL Securities (IIFLSEC) Delivers Powerful 3-Month Breakout: Buy, Sale or Hold?

Have you noticed IIFL Securities, or IIFLSEC as we traders call it, smashing through its recent highs? Over the last three months, the stock jumped around 30-31%, breaking out like a bull from a pen – think of it as finally shaking off that sideways rut. Current price hovers near ₹378-₹389, after touching a 52-week high of ₹391. Volumes spiked too, hinting buyers are piling in, but is this the real deal or just hype?

Market cap sits comfy at ₹11,763-₹12,059 Cr – mid-sized in broking world. P/E ratio? About 16.8-20.6, cheaper than industry average of 22.75, so not overpriced like some flashy peers. ROE shines at 28-32%, ROCE 33%, showing they squeeze good returns from money – better than many banks your uncle trusts blindly. Debt to equity is low at 0.37, cash flow positive with operating cash up massively YoY (think 840% in recent years). Dividend yield? A nice 0.78-0.79%, pays out steadily around 22%. Profit growth? Solid 35% CAGR over 5 years, though latest Q3FY25 PAT dipped QoQ but up 31% YoY to ₹197 Cr.

Started in 1995 by Nirmal Jain, IIM-A grad and CA – guy saw India's markets waking up and jumped in with research first. No fancy silver spoon; he built from scratch as India Infoline Group. Expanded to broking, went public later. R. Venkataraman now MD, keeping the family vibe. From research desk to full brokerage powerhouse by 2000s, adding wealth management amid booms and busts. Survived 2008 crash, listed on NSE/BSE – resilient like that old scooter that never quits.

Retail broking (your demat buys/sells), institutional equities for big FIIs, commodities, currency trading, plus investment banking and wealth advice. Distribute mutual funds, IPOs too – basically, your one-stop for trading masala. Revenue from fees, not lending risks, so steady in volatile times. Q3 income up 11% YoY despite dips elsewhere.

Short-term, that 3-month breakout screams buy if it holds ₹375 support – could test ₹450 soon, but watch volatility; dropped 27% from all-time high once. For 2026, analysts eye ₹550-₹860 end-year if bull run continues. Longer haul: 2030 maybe ₹1,400-₹5,000? Optimistic sites say so, banking on India's growth. 2035? ₹2,000+, 2040 even wilder at multi-baggers if ROE stays fat. But these are my wildest guesses and do not trust them blindly.

Sunday, January 4, 2026

eMudhra Share Price Near 52-Week Low ₹556: Golden Buying Opportunity or Dangerous Trap?

Retail investors and traders, eMudhra's stock just hit around ₹556-576, scraping its 52-week low after peaking at ₹990. Down 40% in a year, it's got folks wondering—is this a steal or a stay-away?

Why the Price Drop?
Market's jittery on IT stocks, but eMudhra's revenue jumped 41% TTM to ₹606 Cr, with profits up 17% to ₹98 Cr. Q2 sales rose 22% YoY to ₹173 Cr, yet shares tanked—maybe profit margins dipped to 23% from 29%, or big capex spooked buyers. Side note: reminds me of that friend who buys low but panics early.

Market cap sits at ₹4,773 Cr, P/E 50.2—higher than IT industry avg of ~32-46. Debt? Almost zero, debt-to-equity 0, super healthy. ROE 12.1%, ROCE 15.3%, dividend yield a measly 0.22%. Cash flow strong: operating ₹101 Cr last year, though investing ate ₹211 Cr on growth. Profit growth YoY? Solid 38% CAGR over 5 years, but latest TTM slowed to 17%. Free cash positive at ₹184 Cr FY25.

V. Srinivasan, the founder chairman, kicked off eMudhra in 2008 with a math degree and CA quals—guy's a numbers wizard from ICICI days. Started as digital seal idea, now India's top licensed Certifying Authority under IT Act. Issued 60M+ certs, serves banks, autos globally.

They do digital trust: signatures, SSL certs, PKI, MFA, paperless workflows—like eSign for loans without paper. Two arms—Enterprise Solutions (77% revenue, cyber sec biggie) and trust services. Clients in 21 countries, top 10 Indian banks use 'em. Growth from AI, zero-trust security as world goes digital. Real-life win: helps SMEs sign contracts fast, no couriers.

Golden buy? Debt-free, 35% 5-yr sales CAGR, promoter hold 54% (down a bit, watch that). Trap if margins keep slipping or competition bites. Trading near low, could bounce if Q3 beats.Price predictions? Analysts eye ₹988 short-term, but long-haul: 2026 ~₹1,500-1,800, 2030 ~₹6,000-7,500 if digital boom holds. 
By 2035? Wild guess ₹15k+, 2040 maybe ₹30k+ on global expansion—pure optimism, markets flip fast. Doubt it hits if recession bites.

Saturday, January 3, 2026

BCCL IPO 2026 Alert: Coal India's Coking Coal Giant Opens Jan 9 – GMP, IPO Price Band & Allotment Date.

Bharat Coking Coal Ltd (BCCL) is dropping its IPO bombshell – opening January 9, 2026. As Coal India's big arm for coking coal, it's all OFS, no fresh cash for them, with Coal India selling 46.57 crore shares worth around ₹1,300 crore.

Price band? Not out yet, drops January 5 probably. GMP's buzzing at ₹10-14 in grey markets, hinting decent listing pop if steel demand holds. Allotment's January 14, listing January 16 on BSE/NSE. Retail gets 35%, shareholders 10% – nice for Coal India holders.

Financials look solid but patchy. Revenue dipped a tad: ₹13,297 cr in FY23 to ₹14,045 cr FY24, then ₹13,998 cr FY25. Profits jumped huge YoY from ₹665 cr to ₹1,564 cr (135% growth!), eased to ₹1,240 cr FY25. EPS at ₹2.66 FY25, RONW 20.83%, ROCE 30%.

Market cap pre-IPO? Around ₹13,000 cr valuation floated. P/E not fixed sans price, but peers like Coal India trade at 8-11x. Industry P/E for coal firms hovers 10-15x, BCCL's profit dip might cap it lower. Dividend yield? No data yet, but Coal India pays 6% – expect similar PSU vibe.

Market cap pre-IPO? 
Around ₹13,000 cr valuation floated. P/E not fixed sans price, but peers like Coal India trade at 8-11x. Industry P/E for coal firms hovers 10-15x, BCCL's profit dip might cap it lower. Dividend yield? No data yet, but Coal India pays 6% – expect similar PSU vibe.
Debt to equity low as PSU, cash flows strong from ops (EBITDA margins 16% FY25). ROE around 21% last year. H1 FY26 profit slipped to ₹124 cr on ₹5,659 cr sales – coal prices volatile, huh?

Born 1972, nationalized October that year under Coal Mines Authority. Coal India sub since 1975, Mini Ratna 2014. HQ Dhanbad, mines Jharia/Raniganj – India's sole prime coking coal spot, 7.9 bn tonnes reserves.

Business? Dig coking coal (39 MT FY25, 96% output), non-coking too. Washeries wash it for steel (2% sales), power eats 78%. Five washeries, more building – pushing self-reliance vs imports. 32 mines, 31k staff.

Tricky, coal's green-shift headache. 2026 end: ₹40-50 post-listing if GMP holds, steel boom. 2030: ₹80-100, assuming 10% CAGR on volumes. 2035: ₹150? 2040: ₹250 if washeries scale, but renewables might crush demand – like old Kodak vs phones. GMP low now, wonder if oversubscribed.







Friday, January 2, 2026

IREDA Q3 FY26 Business Update: Loan Disbursements Jump 44%, Sanctions Hit ₹40,100 Cr, Loan Book Nears ₹88,000 Cr.

IREDA's stock just popped up to around ₹147 after that killer Q3 update. Loan disbursements shot up 44% to ₹24,903 crore, sanctions climbed 29% to ₹40,100 crore, and the loan book hit ₹87,975 crore—basically ₹88,000 crore. No wonder shares jumped nearly 6% in a day.

Why the Price Surge?

This news hit like a solar panel in sunlight. Investors love growth in renewables, right? IREDA's numbers scream demand for green loans amid India's push for net-zero. But hey, it's off 37% from yearly highs—52-week top was ₹234, low ₹129. Volatile, like monsoon rains. Still, short-term charts show bullish crossovers.

Market cap sits at ₹39,149 crore. P/E ratio? 22.72, above industry average of about 18 for term lenders. �� Dividend yield is 0%—bummer, no payouts despite profits. ROE strong at 16.54-18%, debt-to-equity high at 6.31 (they borrow big to lend). Cash flow? Operating is negative ₹14,460 crore last year—typical for lenders funding loans. Profit grew 35-44% YoY recently.

It's a government baby, born 1987 under Ministry of New & Renewable Energy. Fully owned by GoI back then, now Navratna PSU after 2023 IPO. Current chairman? Pradip Kumar Das, finance pro with 30+ years. Promoters hold 72%. Think of it as India's green bank, backed by Uncle Sam (govt).

Lend to solar, wind, hydro, battery projects. Term loans, short-term cash, even guarantees. No deposits, pure NBFC—borrow cheap from bonds/markets, lend to green devs at higher rates. Loan book exploding shows India's 500 GW renewable goal is real. They finance makers too, like panels. Risky? Yeah, but AAA rated.

Tough call, markets flip fast. By end-2026, maybe ₹400-560 if disbursements keep roaring—renewables boom helps. 2030? ₹700-1,100, riding 20% CAGR profits. 2035 around ₹1,500-2,000, 2040 ₹2,000-2,800. Wild guesses from analysts, assuming India hits green targets. These are my wildest guesses. Do your own research please.

Thursday, January 1, 2026

OYO Parent PRISM Files IPO Papers in Third Attempt: ₹6,650 Cr Raise at $7-8 Bn Valuation – Listing Soon?

OYO's parent, PRISM, just filed IPO papers with SEBI again. Third time lucky? They're aiming for ₹6,650 crore fresh cash at $7-8 billion valuation. Listing might hit early 2026. This buzz has retail investors chatting. After years of ups and downs, OYO looks profitable now. But is the price right? Let's break it down simple.

FY25 revenue jumped 16% to ₹6,253 crore. 
Profit after tax? ₹245 crore, up 7% YoY. Q1 FY26 even better – ₹200+ crore profit, revenue +47% to ₹2,019 crore.
 EBITDA strong at ₹1,100 crore yearly.
Debt's a worry though. Over ₹7,000 crore long-term borrowings, debt-to-equity around 2.2. 
Cash flow? Positive from EBITDA, but exact operating cash not public yet. No dividends – they're growth-focused. 
ROE? Improving from losses, maybe 6-7% now with profits. Industry P/E double global peers at 56x vs 28x. OYO trades premium, betting on travel boom.

Ritesh Agarwal started it all. Just 19, dropped college, got Thiel Fellowship cash. Launched Oravel Stays in 2012 as budget hotel listings. Renamed OYO 2013 – "On Your Own" vibe.He traveled India solo, hated dodgy budget stays. Fixed that with branding. SoftBank poured billions, grew to 35+ countries. Pandemic hurt bad, losses piled. Now rebranded parent PRISM for lifestyle push. Ritesh still CEO, owns ~30%.

Simple model. They don't own hotels. Partner with small owners, slap OYO brand, standardize – clean sheets, WiFi, 24/7 support. App books rooms cheap for travelers.Earn from commissions, fees. Premium now – Belvilla homes, Motel 6 buyouts. 120k+ vacation spots, 21k hotels. GBV soared 53% FY25 to ₹16,250 crore. Like Uber for budget beds.Travel back post-Covid. India demand huge.

IPO at $7-8B valuation – say ₹600/share post-listing? Unlisted at ₹50 now.
2026: If listing smooth, travel grows 20%, could hit ₹800-1,000. Momentum play.
2030: $26B India opportunity, Bernstein says. ₹2,000+ if premium scales.
2035: Global leader? ₹5,000, assuming 15% CAGR.
2040: Wild guess, ₹10,000+ if AI pricing, vacations boom. But debt, competition – risky. Like betting on young Ritesh again.