What Triggered This Mess?
Promoter Bajaj Finance dumped a 2% stake back in early December 2025 via a block deal worth about ₹1,900 crore at ₹97 a share. That sparked panic selling, and the stock kept sliding – now 47% off its peak of ₹180. Feels like investors are spooked by more stake sales possible, since promoters still hold 86-88%. Market's rough too, with NBFC jitters.
Quick Numbers Check:
Current price hovers near ₹88-90, market cap around ₹73,000-75,700 Cr.
P/E is high at 31-32x, way above housing finance industry average of 16x.
ROE sits at 10.8-13.5%, ROCE 8.8-9.5% – decent but not screaming value. Debt to equity? High at 4.4-4.7, typical for lenders loaded with borrowings. No dividend yield yet, 0%. Cash flow from operations negative at -₹17,000 Cr last year – they're growing loans fast, so money's pouring into assets. Profit up 24% YoY in H1 FY26 to ₹1,226 Cr, strong sales growth too.
Part of the Bajaj empire, kicked off in 1926 by Jamnalal Bajaj. Bajaj Housing Finance started mortgage ops in 2018 as a Bajaj Finance subsidiary – now a top HFC with 308K customers by 2024. Led by Bajaj Finserv folks like Sanjiv Bajaj. No big founder drama, just solid family biz vibes.
How They Make Money?
Lend for homes, property upgrades, biz expansions. Products? Home loans, loans against property (LAP), developer finance, lease rental discounting. They fund individuals and builders – AUM exploding, 2nd biggest in housing finance. Think of it like your friendly neighborhood bank, but focused on roofs over heads. Growth's wild, 29% sales CAGR over 5 years.
₹292-342 by end-2026, ₹610-725 in 2030, up to ₹1,370 in 2035, even ₹2,000-2,660 by 2040. Housing boom in India could help, but high debt and P/E make me pause.
These are my wildest guesses. Do not trust these numbers blindly.
