IRCTC stock just hit its 52-week low around ₹653-656. Brutal drop from ₹832 high. Wondering if it's a steal for long-term holders or a trap?
Price Drop Reasons-
Recent quarters showed decent sales up 7-8% YoY, but profit growth slowed to about 10%. Investors dumped shares after railway budget gave modest capex hikes—no big Vande Bharat boom yet. Competition from private apps like redBus nibbles at tourism edges too.
Market cap sits at ₹52,500-54,000 Cr. P/E ratio? Around 38-39, slightly below sector's 40-42. Debt to equity is basically zero—super clean balance sheet. ROE shines at 37-38%, ROCE near 49%. Dividend yield 1.2%, steady payout over 46%. Cash flow from ops positive at ₹800+ Cr last year, though investing outflows for expansions. Profit grew 20% CAGR over 5 years, but latest YoY cooler.
Born in 1999 as a PSU under Ministry of Railways to fix messy catering and push tourism. IPO in 2019 made it public, shares rocketed to ₹1200+ then cooled. Mini-Ratna status now. Real story: from manual tickets to app monopoly.
IRCTC runs e-ticketing (80% revenue), that's the cash cow with monopoly on trains. Catering on trains/stations, tourism packages, Rail Neer water, even lounges and iMudra wallet. Diversified to flights/hotels bookings. Like your one-stop railway uncle—tickets, food, trips all in one.
Future Price Predictions-
2026: ₹900-1200, riding rail modernization.
2030: ₹1400-3600 if tourism booms with India's travel surge. Stretch to 2035/2040? No solid calls, but if GDP hits 8%, could double to ₹2500+ by 2035, ₹4000 by 2040—purely my wildest guesses on compounding. Doubtful if monopoly cracks. Don't trust these numbers blindly.